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The simplest way to model the watercut in a given well is the Water Watercut (Yw) Fractional Flow @model:

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{\rm Y_{wm}} = \frac{1}{1 + \frac{M_{ro}}{M_{rw}}  \cdot \frac{B_w}{B_o} }

which provides a good estimate when the drawdown is much higher than delta pressure from gravity and capillary effects.

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The model 

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 can also be used in gross field production analysis and in this case the average reservoir saturation can be assumed homogeneous: 

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