A means of predicting future oil or gas well production based on past production history.
The first and the most popular decline curve methodology is Arp's decline model:
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Mathematical model predicting the fluid production from a reservoir based on the past production/injection history.
It can be applied to any fluid production: water, oil or gas.
It does not involve the knowledge of formation pressure or bottom-hole pressure and is solely based on production/injection history data.
This comes as advantage in quick estimation of production perspectives and as disadvantage in accurate long-terms predictions.
There are many popular decline metrics, including the most popular:
| Arps | conventional reservoirs |
| Duong | tight gas, shales |
| Power Law | tight gas, shales |
| Neural Network | wide-range |
The first historically and the most popular Decline Curve Analysis methodology in conventional reservoirs is Arps decline model:
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| Fig. 1. Exponential Production Decline | Fig. 2. Hyperbolic Production Decline | Fig. 3. Harmonic Production Decline |
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It does not involve the knowledge of formation pressure or bottom-hole pressure and solely based on production data.
See Arp's DCA @model for mathematical Arp's model.
See Also
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Petroleum Industry / Upstream / Production / Subsurface Production / Field Study & Modelling / Production Analysis / Analytical Production Forecast
References
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